Cheap memory has stopped being cheap, and smartphone makers are already paying for it. In the first quarter of 2026, global smartphone production reached about 284 million units, down 1.7% from a year earlier, according to TrendForce. Xiaomi was the sharpest hit, while Samsung was the only top-six vendor to raise output.
The short version: inventory cushions are gone. Brands spent much of the second half of 2025 working through components bought before prices climbed, which delayed the pain. Now those buffers are thinning, margins are getting squeezed, and production plans for the second quarter are being revised with far less optimism than before.
Samsung and Apple lead smartphone production
Samsung led the market with about 62.6 million smartphones produced in the quarter, up 2.3% year over year. That made it the only company in the top six to increase production versus the fourth quarter of 2025, helped by deep pockets and a lineup that leans heavily on premium models, which can absorb cost shocks better than bargain phones.
Apple followed with 60.2 million units. Its output jumped 19.7% from the same period a year earlier, boosted by the launch of the iPhone 17e and a broader iPhone 17 family, but production still dropped 31% from the previous quarter. That kind of swing is a reminder that even Apple is not immune to the usual post-launch shuffle.
Xiaomi, Oppo, and Vivo feel the memory costs squeeze
Xiaomi was the quarter’s most obvious casualty. The company produced 26 million smartphones, down 38% year over year and 37% sequentially. Oppo shipped 29.5 million units, up 8% from a year earlier but down 25% from the prior quarter, while Vivo reached 22 million units, slipping 8% both year over year and quarter over quarter.
TrendForce says the problem is not demand alone; it is the ugly mix of higher component costs and weaker room for profit. That is especially awkward for vendors that rely on volume rather than premium pricing to make the numbers work.
- Global smartphone production in the first quarter of 2026: about 284 million units
- Samsung: 62.6 million units, up 2.3%
- Apple: 60.2 million units, up 19.7% year over year
- Xiaomi: 26 million units, down 38%
- Oppo: 29.5 million units, up 8%
- Vivo: 22 million units, down 8%
- Tecno: 19.8 million units
The second quarter will test budget brands first
Tecno finished sixth with 19.8 million smartphones, and its position exposes the sharpest edge of the memory crunch: budget brands have the least slack. TrendForce expects global smartphone production to fall about 16.2% for the full year to around 1.05 billion units, and warns the decline could deepen if memory prices keep climbing and manufacturers are forced into another round of price hikes.
That leaves the industry with an unglamorous choice: protect volumes and sacrifice margins, or protect margins and risk selling fewer phones. Expect the cheaper end of the market to feel the strain first, because that is usually where every extra dollar in bill of materials shows up fastest.