Russia adds 37,000 IT firms as teams get smaller

Russia registered nearly 37,000 new IT legal entities in January–June 2026, a 64% year-over-year increase, according to Kommersant, citing Rusprofile. By the end of June, the total number of businesses in the sector had reached 273,000.

On the surface, that looks like a sharp industry upswing. But the picture inside the market is more complicated. Yury Vasilenko, CEO of GrafTech, said many IT companies have cut staff by up to 30%. The result is a market where the number of legal entities is rising faster than employment.

Part of the explanation is technical. AI tools now let very small teams build MVPs, test ideas, and launch services without the headcount that used to be standard. Part of it is financial. In Russia, accredited IT companies qualify for benefits including reduced insurance contributions, so spinning off a unit into a separate legal entity can bring direct savings.

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According to the Ministry of Digital Development, more than 500 organizations received accreditation in just six months, bringing the total number in the registry to more than 21,000 companies.

Experts interviewed by Kommersant called this a structural shift. Some specialists are leaving salaried jobs for outsourcing work and setting up their own companies. Formally, the number of businesses is growing, but that does not automatically mean a comparable rise in jobs.

There is also a quality risk. As teams write more code with AI assistance, that code needs closer review. Without solid secure development practices, vulnerabilities can surface faster, and headcount savings may prove costly later.

Official data is somewhat more optimistic. The Ministry of Digital Development, citing HSE data, said the number of specialists in the sector grew by 102,000 in the first quarter, bringing the total close to 1.2 million people. Even so, that does not change the broader trend: the market is fragmenting, and the average team appears to be getting smaller.

The same pattern is visible outside Russia. Large global tech companies have been cutting costs since 2023 while using AI more heavily in software development, separating product growth from headcount growth.

In the second half of 2026, the real test will be employment and revenue at accredited firms. If registrations keep rising while staffing stays flat or keeps falling, it will be a stronger sign that AI is changing not just the output of IT companies, but how they are structured.