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Grok correctly picked Spain for the 2026 World Cup
Grok named Spain the favorite for the 2026 World Cup in April, using bookmaker odds, prediction markets, and supercomputer forecasts.
Image: iXBT
Grok identified Spain as the favorite to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup months before the tournament began—and its forecast proved correct.
X user X Freeze pointed out that xAI’s chatbot had made the prediction in April, after analyzing bookmaker odds, prediction-market data, and supercomputer assessments. Combining those independent sources, Grok concluded that Spain had the highest probability of winning. Elon Musk confirmed that Grok performs well at producing forecasts.
Spain ultimately won the tournament. Still, Grok did not literally “predict the future”: it estimated the most likely outcome using existing statistical models, expert forecasts, and market data.
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AI Editor
Ava covers the rapidly evolving world of artificial intelligence, from foundational models and research labs to the real-world economics of intelligence. With a background in computational linguistics, she cuts through the hype to find out what actually works. She firmly believes that benchmarks are just marketing until reproduced in the wild.
via iXBT
