Xiaomi, Oppo and Vivo are telling suppliers to brace for another round of smartphone shipment cuts, with some targets falling by as much as 30% as component shortages and rising costs squeeze the Android side of the market. Xiaomi’s latest forecast now puts shipments at 95 million smartphones, while Oppo and Vivo have also trimmed their outlooks to below 90 million units.
The pressure is hitting the companies that rely most on high-volume, midrange phones, while Apple and Samsung sit a little closer to the front of the queue for scarce parts. The problem is no longer a temporary supply hiccup, but a broader scramble for memory chips, packaging capacity, and everything else a handset needs before it reaches a store shelf.
Xiaomi shipment target falls to 95 million
Xiaomi had already lowered expectations for this year to 135 million units, down from 170 million in the previous year. In its latest forecast, it cut that figure again by 30% to 95 million smartphones, citing severe component shortages and sharply higher prices. The company also warned suppliers that the number could be revised down again if the supply chain does not improve.
Oppo and Vivo have also trimmed their outlooks to below 90 million units. Honor, meanwhile, told suppliers it will not be able to maintain its growth pace after shipping 71 million smartphones in the previous year.
Memory chips are turning into the bottleneck
According to Counterpoint Research, the smartphone market is expected to shrink by 14% in 2026. IDC has a similar forecast for the overall market and says Android devices could fall by 21%, which is a nasty number for Xiaomi, Oppo, Vivo and Honor given how dependent they are on that segment.
The shortage is not just about phone makers. Nvidia’s hunger for memory for AI servers is part of the same squeeze, and Qualcomm and MediaTek have shifted more attention toward the data-center business as well. MediaTek has already warned customers about higher prices, which is the corporate equivalent of saying, ”good luck out there.”
Used phones and after-sales parts are getting hotter
There is one side effect that looks almost ironic: demand is rising for aftermarket components and refurbished smartphones. As prices climb, consumers are keeping devices longer than expected, which supports repair shops and the second-hand market even as it dents new-phone volumes.
Samsung is comparatively better insulated because of its premium-heavy lineup and better access to memory chips. The bigger question is whether Chinese brands can defend share by cutting margins, or whether they end up passing more of the pain on to buyers who are already stretching the life of their current phones.