Memory prices are heading higher again, and the people doing the math are not even pretending this is a small bump. Jefferies says global memory pricing could rise 40% to 50% in the third quarter compared with the previous quarter, then add another 30% to 40% in the fourth quarter, with relief not expected before 2028.
That makes the current memory price cycle look less like a hiccup and more like a long, grinding squeeze on device makers, server builders, and anyone who buys DRAM by the truckload. Aletheia Capital had already warned that prices were moving sharply higher, but Jefferies is effectively calling for a much steeper climb. The uncomfortable part for buyers is that both firms agree the real turning point is still far away.
Jefferies’ sharper memory price forecast
In its latest view, Jefferies expects annual memory price growth of 40% to 45% across 2027. The firm says signs of cooling should not show up until 2028, when prices may finally begin to ease as global production capacity gradually comes back online. Even then, the decline is expected to be modest rather than dramatic, at 15% to 20%.
- Third quarter: 40% to 50% increase versus the previous quarter
- Fourth quarter: another 30% to 40% increase versus the previous quarter
- 2027: 40% to 45% annual growth
- 2028: possible decline of 15% to 20%
Why DRAM buyers are getting nervous
Aletheia Capital had previously forecast a 30% rise in average DRAM prices in the third quarter and 10% to 15% in the fourth, which already sounded unpleasant enough. Jefferies has basically cranked that dial much higher. The message is clear: shortages and tight supply are still doing the heavy lifting, and memory buyers should not expect a quick reset.
For hardware vendors, that is bad timing. Memory pricing tends to feed straight into laptop, phone, SSD, and server costs, so a sustained upswing can linger well beyond the component market itself. Samsung Electronics, meanwhile, has just announced development of what it calls the industry’s fastest Universal Flash Storage 5.0 solution, a reminder that performance gains can arrive even while the bill for memory gets nastier.
What happens if supply finally loosens
The key variable is how quickly global manufacturing capacity opens up. If the supply side catches up in 2028, prices could start to edge down – but not by much, and not in a way that makes procurement teams celebrate. The more likely near-term story is simply more expensive memory, more margin pressure, and a very long wait for the market to behave normally again.