Nvidia’s stock has ripped 18% higher in 10 days, even though the company itself is still weeks away from reporting results. The move says less about one quarter and more about the market’s current obsession: anyone selling the picks and shovels for AI infrastructure is getting paid. Nvidia is now within 8% of its record high from October, and that gap could close fast if the broader chip rally keeps feeding on itself.
The latest burst came after a mix of market chatter and product signaling. A rumor that Nvidia might buy a big PC maker such as Dell or HP Inc. was denied, while the company also unveiled Ising, a family of open-source AI models – an unusual move for a firm that usually prefers to sell the hardware under the software spotlight. The combination seems to have reassured investors that Nvidia is still expanding its reach without wandering too far from what it does best.
Server revenue still dominates Nvidia’s business
What really matters underneath the stock chart is the mix of Nvidia’s business. Since its last quarterly report, the company has said server chips account for 88% of revenue, and that segment is still growing 75% year over year. That is an enviable number, but it also shows how concentrated the company has become: this is now an AI infrastructure company with a gaming legacy, not the other way around.
Jensen Huang said in March that Nvidia already has more than $1 trillion of orders to work through by the end of 2027. Even if investors treat that figure with a little skepticism, the direction is clear. Demand is still spread across Blackwell, the newer Vera Rubin family, and the rest of the AI stack, which helps explain why buyers keep showing up after every wobble.
US AI spending remains the backdrop for Nvidia
Nvidia is also being lifted by a wider spending wave that is bigger than any single company. Cloud giants are still pouring hundreds of billions of dollars into compute infrastructure, and the US segment alone is expected to direct $650 billion toward those needs this year. That kind of capex binge is exactly why Nvidia keeps getting the benefit of the doubt, even when valuation nerves return.
Creative Strategies argues that the scarcity of compute has made Nvidia the central supplier in modern AI. The uncomfortable truth for rivals is that demand is still outrunning supply, which means the market keeps rewarding the company that can ship the chips first. The next test is whether that enthusiasm holds when Nvidia finally publishes its own numbers in May.
What investors will watch next
- Whether Nvidia can close the remaining 8% gap to its October peak
- How much Blackwell and Vera Rubin add to the next growth leg
- Whether the company keeps widening beyond chips without muddying its core story
If the AI buildout keeps accelerating, Nvidia probably stays the stock that everyone owns, regrets missing, or both. The real question is whether the next move comes from fresh demand – or from investors deciding they were still underestimating how long the spending spree can last.