Intel is back in Apple’s supply chain, but not with a headline-grabbing flagship chip. According to analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, the company is set to make and test processors for older and lower-cost iPhone, iPad, and Mac models on its 18A-P process in the US, with Apple treating the move as a cautious, staged trial rather than a full-blown switch. That is good news for Intel’s foundry ambitions and for Washington’s push to grow domestic chipmaking; it is less comforting for TSMC, which still looks far too entrenched to be displaced anytime soon.
The product mix is telling. Kuo says iPhone orders will account for about 80% of the volume, which lines up with Apple’s real sales mix and suggests this is meant to be a realistic test of Intel’s ability to serve Apple across a broad device range, not a one-off vanity project. The timing is equally deliberate: small-scale testing in 2026, a ramp in 2027, further growth in 2028, and then a decline in 2029, which reads like a textbook lifecycle plan for a new foundry node.
Intel’s Apple chip deal: what Intel will make
- Processors for budget and older iPhone models
- Processors for budget and older iPad models
- Processors for budget and older Mac models
- Production and testing on Intel’s 18A-P process
18A-P matters because it is described as Intel’s improved fab technology, aimed at more mature high-volume manufacturing and outside customers that need complex chips. That is exactly the sort of business Intel needs if it wants its foundry arm to be taken seriously beyond its own silicon. Apple, meanwhile, is acting like a buyer that knows concentration risk when it sees it.
TSMC still holds the upper hand
Kuo says Intel’s goal for 2027 is to get its yield, or the share of usable chips, to 50-60% or better. That is a necessary milestone, not a victory lap. Even if the first shipments go smoothly, he believes TSMC would still control more than 90% of the market, which is the part of the story Intel’s cheerleaders tend to skip.
There is also a wider strategic backdrop here. Apple is reportedly watching Intel’s other advanced process technologies too, while TSMC’s revenue mix continues to tilt toward AI and high-performance computing rather than just smartphone chips. In plain English: Apple wants leverage, Intel wants credibility, and TSMC is still the one with the best bargaining position.
A test of Intel’s foundry pitch
The deal was first reported as a preliminary agreement in early May, and it fits neatly with Intel’s need to prove it can serve external customers at scale. The detail that shipping schedules are still unclear, and that assemblers and EMS partners have not seen firm timelines, is a reminder that this is still early-stage industrial plumbing, not a finished supply-chain pivot.
If Intel can get its yields up and keep Apple interested, this could become the model for how a second-source foundry relationship starts: low-risk parts first, older products first, then a slow climb toward more meaningful volume. If not, it will be remembered as a useful headline and little more. The next real signal is whether 2026 testing turns into something Apple can actually trust.