Grand Theft Auto VI has not shown a second of gameplay publicly, yet the hype machine is already producing absurd numbers. According to industry watcher Tom Henderson, Rockstar Games and Take-Two could pull in more than $1 billion within an hour of opening GTA VI preorders, with the first wave going live for PlayStation and Xbox on 25 June.
That would be a staggering pace even by blockbuster standards. Henderson said on a recent episode of Insider Gaming Weekly that GTA VI could sell 12 million to 14 million copies in the first hour of preorder availability, a figure that would leave many full-price AAA launches looking positively modest.
GTA VI preorder sales could outpace GTA V
The comparison people keep reaching for is GTA V, which crossed $1 billion in three days. GTA VI, if Henderson is anywhere near the mark, would compress that milestone into one hour. That is not just a stronger launch; it is the sort of sales velocity usually reserved for consoles, not software.
- Predicted preorder revenue: more than $1 billion
- Predicted early sales: 12 million to 14 million copies
- Preorders open: 25 June for PlayStation and Xbox
Why the forecast sounds wild but not impossible
This is what happens when a franchise becomes bigger than the medium around it. Rockstar’s last mainline release turned into a cultural fixture and kept selling for years, while Take-Two has spent the better part of a decade letting anticipation do the marketing. In a market where many AAA games struggle to clear even a fraction of that launch window, GTA VI is being treated like a global event before it has a price tag attached.
Analysts have already floated even loftier expectations, saying the game may need to move more than 46 million copies in its first day to satisfy the scale of demand. That sounds ridiculous until you remember the franchise has been normalizing ridiculous for a long time.
The real test comes after the preorder rush
Preorders are one thing; keeping that momentum after launch is another. Rockstar has the advantage of a fan base that has waited through an unusually long stretch of silence, but it will still need a finished game that justifies the frenzy, not just the franchise logo. If those preorder numbers land anywhere close to Henderson’s estimate, the bigger question will not be whether GTA VI breaks records, but how many of the industry’s old assumptions survive the week.